This paper proposes two simple tests that are based on certain time domain properties of I(d) processes. First, if a time series follows an I(d) process, then each subsample of the time series also follows an I(d) process with the same value of d. Second, if a time series follows an I(d)...

Resampling methods such as the bootstrap are routinely used to estimate the finite-sample null distributions of a range of test statistics. We present a simple and tractable way to perform classical hypothesis tests based upon a kernel estimate of the CDF of the bootstrap statistics. This...

This paper analyzes the higher-order properties of nested pseudo-likelihood (NPL) estimators and their practical implementation for parametric discrete Markov decision models in which the probability distribution is defined as a fixed point. We propose a new NPL estimator that can achieve...

Seemingly absent from the arsenal of currently available "nearly efficient" testing procedures for the unit root hypothesis, i.e. tests whose asymptotic local power functions are virtually indistinguishable from the Gaussian power envelope, is a test admitting a (quasi-)likelihood ratio...

Targeted employment subsidy programs are commonly employed by governments. This study examines one such initiative that rebated unemployment insurance premi- ums to employers with net increases in insurable earnings for youth aged 18 to 24. In each of two datasets, statistically and economically...

In December 2008, the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) opened a new coffee platform that has transformed Ethiopia’s coffee trade. The way ECX handles coffee in a commodity fashion has eroded traceability, a characteristic sought after by overseas coffee buyers. This paper traces the forces...

We suggest improved tests for cointegration rank in the vector autoregressive (VAR) model and develop asymptotic distribution theory and local power results. The tests are (quasi-)likelihood ratio tests based on a Gaussian likelihood, but as usual the asymptotic results do not require normally...

Empirical evidence from time series methods which assume the usual I(0)/I(1) paradigm suggests that the efficient market hypothesis, stating that spot and futures prices of a commodity should co-integrate with a unit slope on futures prices, does not hold. However, these statistical methods are...

This paper provides tables of critical values for some popular tests of cointegration and unit roots. Although these tables are necessarily based on computer simulations, they are much more accurate than those previously available. The results of the simulation experiments are summarized by...

We examine several modified versions of the heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator of Hinkley and White. On the basis of sampling experiments which compare the performance of quasi t statistics, we find that one estimator, based on the jackknife, performs better in small...