We estimate the pricing of sovereign risk for sixty countries based on fiscal space (debt/tax;deficits/tax) and other economic fundamentals over 2005-10. We measure how accurately themodel predicts sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads, focusing in particular on the fivecountries in the...

This paper evaluates how the global financial crisis emanating from theU.S. was transmitted to emerging markets. Our focus is on the extent thatthe crisis caused external market pressures (EMP), and whether theabsorption of the shock was mainly through exchange rate depreciation orthe loss of...

Are countries with unregulated capital flows more vulnerable to currency crises? Efforts to answer this question properly must control for “self selection†bias since countries with liberalized capital accounts may also have more sound economic policies and institutions that make them...

This paper presents statistical analysis supporting stylized facts about sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). It discusses the forces leading to the growth of SWFs, including the role of fuel exports and ongoing current account surpluses, and large hoarding of international reserves. It analyzes the...

This paper presents a model comparing the optimal degree of asset class diversification abroadby a central bank and a sovereign wealth fund. We show that if the central bank manages itsforeign asset holdings in order to meet balance of payments needs, particularly in reducing theprobability of...

This paper studies the empirical and theoretical association between the duration of a pegged exchange rate and the cost experienced upon exiting the regime. We confirm empirically that exits from pegged exchange rate regimes during the past two decades have often been accompanied by crises, the...

This paper clarifies one of the puzzling results of the economic growth literature: the impact of military expenditure is frequently found to be non-significant or negative, yet most countries spend a large fraction of their GDP on defense and the military. We start by empirical evaluation of...

Are countries with unregulated capital flows more vulnerable to currency crises? Efforts to answer this question properly must control for “self selection†bias since countries with liberalized capital accounts may also have more sound economic policies and institutions that make them...