Showing 1 - 10 of 98
The paper discusses a simple univariate nonlinear parametric time-series model for unemployment rates, focusing on the asymmetry observed in many OECD unemployment rate series. The model is based on a standard logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model for the first difference of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190848
Changes in the seasonal patterns of macroeconomic time series may be due to the effects of business cycle fluctuations or to technological and institutional change or both. We examine the relative importance of these two sources of change in seasonality for quarterly industrial production series...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005207194
This paper examines the relationship between regional economic integration and FDI in North America, where two RIAs have been established over the past decade: a bilateral free trade agreement between Canada and the U.S. (CUSTA) and a trilateral agreement (NAFTA) incorporating Mexico as well....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423833
This paper studies the effects of financial liberalization and banking crises on growth. It shows that financial liberalization spurs on average economic growth. Banking crises are harmful for growth, but to a lesser extent in countries with open financial systems and good institutions. <p> The...</p>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423879
In this paper we investigate whether the European unification has had an impact on the Union's average labor productivity growth. Based on a time series approach we do not find a scale-effect as suggested by new growth theory. However, the data do not reject the hypothesis that the EU growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190857
The asymmetric power ARCH model is a recent addition to time series models that may be used for predicting volatility. Its performance is compared with that of standard models of conditional heteroskedasticity such as GARCH. This has previously been done empirically. In this paper the same issue...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423779
Starting from a linear error correction model the stability and linearity of a German M1 moneyt demand function are investigated, applying smooth transition regression techniques. Using seasonally unadjusted data from 1961 (1) to 1990 (2) it is found that the money demand equation is both linear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423786
The detection of structural change and determination of lag lengths are long-standing issues in time series analysis. This paper demonstrates how these can be successfully married in a Bayesian analysis. By taking account of the inherent uncertainty about the lag length when deciding on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423801
This paper analyzes the net barter terms of trade measured by the primary commodity price index relative to the index of unit values of export of manufactures from industrial countries. The starting-point is that the series is stationary but possibly nonlinear. Statistical tests indicate that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423802
We consider a family of GARCH(1,1) processes introduced in He and Teräsvirta (1999a). This family contains various popular GARCH models as special cases. A necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a strictly stationary solution is given.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423819