Showing 1 - 10 of 96
This paper contains a forecasting exercise on 30 time series, ranging on several fields, from economy to ecology. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190861
-dimensional macroeconomic data set. Results show that the seasonal cointegration model improves forecasting accuracy, compared with the standard … by Johansen and Schaumburg seems to work better than the original model presented by Lee (1992). An empirical forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190852
forecasting study. We include both single equation and multiple equation methods. A VAR model in first differences with and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649206
We propose a seasonal cointegration model [SECM] for quarterly data which includes variables with different numbers of unit roots and thus needs to be transformed in different ways in order to yield stationarity. A Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to investigate the consequences of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649231
In Bayesian analysis of VAR-models, and especially in forecasting applications, the Minnesota prior of Litterman is … report on the forecasting performance of the different prior distributions considered in the paper. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649366
several of its variants. We put emphasis on new methods for testing for STAR nonlinearity, model evaluation, and forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649222
imposing it, when forecasting, and that the ML estimator is preferred. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423845
This paper considers nine long Swedish macroeconomic time series whose business cycle properties were discussed by Englund, Persson, and Svensson (1992) using frequency domain techniques. It is found by testing that all but two of the logarithmed and difference series are non-linear. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423876
This paper examines the predictability memory of fractionally integrated ARMA processes. Very long memory is found for positively fractionally integrated processes with large positive AR parameters. However, negative AR parameters absorb, to a great extent, the memory generated by a positive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190887
In two recent papers, Granger and Ding (1995a, b) considered long return series that are first differences of logarithmed price series or price indices. They established a set of temporal and distributional properties for such series and suggested that the returns are well characterized by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649155