Departures from an economic equilibrium should be mean reverting. The deviations are often assumed to be integrated of order zero but this is too restrictive. It is sufficient that the shocks are integrated of an order less than one, i.e. they may be fractionally integrated. A fractionally...

In this paper we propose a multivariate GARCH model with a time-varying conditional correlation structure. The new Double Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH model extends the Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH model of Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2005) by including...

This paper investigates how fractional cointegration affects the common maximum likelihood cointegration procedure. It is shown that the likelihood ratio test of no cointegration has considerable power against fractional alternatives. In contrast to the case of a cointegrated system, the usual...

In this paper we propose a Lagrange multiplier test for volatility interactions among markets or assets. The null hypothesis is the Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH model in which volatility of an asset is described only through lagged squared innovations and volatility of its own. The...

In cointegration analysis, when considering a hypothesis of the kind beta =(H_1*phi_1,...,H_n*phi_n) the estimator is a simple switching method that requires starting values. We propose using additional restrictions, then solutions of an eigenvector problem may be used as starting values. Using...

The paper compares the search for structural breaks in Sweden's GDP conducted with X-11 seasonally adjusted data, with seasonally unadjusted data, and with temporally aggregated data. A structural break (in 1980) is found only in the X-11 adjusted data, it is plausible to conclude that this...

The panel cointegration test of Larsson et al (1998) test for the maximum number of cointegrating relations in a dynamic panel given the assumption of a common cointegrating rank. This paper presents a test for this assumption. The test is based on the test statistic of Larsson et al (1998) and...

This note proposes a tool to investigate and demonstrate the adequacy of the central limit theorem in small samples. The suggested testing procedure provides a method to investigate if the mean estimator is approximately normally distributed, given data and sample size at hand. This is important...