This paper investigates the relative importance of foreign and domestic shocks for the Swedish postwar business cycle in a neoclassical stochastic growth model of a small open economy. We extend previous work in the literature by allowing for stochastic fiscal policy, since recent research has...

In this paper, which is a substantial extension of the earlier essay Björk (2001), we give an overview of some recent work on the geometric properties of the evolution of the forward rate curve in an arbitrage free bond market. The main problems to be discussed are as follows. <p> 1. When is a...</p>

We consider forward rate rate models of HJM type, as well as more general infinite dimensional SDEs, where the volatility/diffusion term is stochastic in the sense of being driven by a separate hidden Markov process. <p> Within this framework we use the previously developed Hilbert space...</p>

For finite dimensional factor models, the paper studies general quadratic term structures. These term structures include as special cases the affine term structures and the Gaussian quadratic term structures, previously studied in the literature. We show, however, that there are other,...

This paper is a selective survey of new or recent methods to extract information about market expectations from asset prices for monetary policy purposes. Traditionally, interest rates and forward exchange rates have been used to extract expected means of future interest rates, exchange rates...

This paper uses daily capital flows to the Swedish bond market to analyse the relative information endowment of domestic and foreign investors. Using the standard framework of a noisy rational expectations equilibrium it is shown that foreign investors are, on average, better informed than...

The main instrument of monetary policy in industrialized countries is currently a short-term interest rate. It typically remains unchanged during long spans of time. This paper tries to answer three questions. Why do Central Banks change targeted interest rates so seldom? How should we estimate...

This paper is an attempt to explain devaluation expectations in the ERM with macroeconomic fundamentals. Two different measures of devaluation expectations are used; expectations estimated using the drift-adjustment method of Bertola and Svensson [1993] and the directly observable interest rate...

We investigate the term structure of forward and futures prices for models where the price processes are allowed to be driven by a general marked point process as well as by a multidimensional Wiener process. Within an infinite dimensional HJM-type model for futures and forwards we study the...

We consider interest rate models of Heath-Jarrow-Morton type where the forward rates are driven by a multidimensional Wiener process, and where the volatility structure is allowed to be a smooth functional of the present forward rate curve. <p> In a recent paper (to appear in "Mathematical Finance"...</p>