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to perform feature extraction and estimation for different forecasting horizons. The inference aspect is emphasized by … including a <p> penalty for a wrong decision in the cost function. The method is tested by forecasting turning points in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649191
-2001. Three popular measures of uncertainty built from survey data are analyzed in the context of models for forecasting and asset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649488
A bivariate second-order VAR model of money growth and inflation is specified and estimatedby means of least squares. The bias of the parameter estimates is approximated in three ways and new, bias-reduced estimates are computed using the approximations. The effects of bias reduction on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005651512
It is well known that inference in vector autoregressive models depends crucially on the choice of lag-length. Various lag-length selection procedures have been suggested and evaluated in the literature. In these evaluations the possibility that the true model may have unequal lag-length has,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423870
-dimensional macroeconomic data set. Results show that the seasonal cointegration model improves forecasting accuracy, compared with the standard … by Johansen and Schaumburg seems to work better than the original model presented by Lee (1992). An empirical forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190852
This paper contains a forecasting exercise on 30 time series, ranging on several fields, from economy to ecology. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190861
forecasting study. We include both single equation and multiple equation methods. A VAR model in first differences with and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649206
We propose a seasonal cointegration model [SECM] for quarterly data which includes variables with different numbers of unit roots and thus needs to be transformed in different ways in order to yield stationarity. A Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to investigate the consequences of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649231
In Bayesian analysis of VAR-models, and especially in forecasting applications, the Minnesota prior of Litterman is … report on the forecasting performance of the different prior distributions considered in the paper. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649366
In this paper two simple tests to distinguish between unit root processes and stationary nonlinear processes are proposed. New limit distribution results are provided, together with two F type test statistics for the joint unit root and linearity hypothesis against a specific nonlinear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005207178