This paper considers a sequence of misspecification tests for a flexible nonlinear time series model. The model is a generalization of both the Smooth Transition AutoRegressive (STAR) and the AutoRegressive Artificial Artificial Neural Network (AR-ANN) models. The tests are Lagrange multiplier...

This article is concerned with forecasting from nonlinear conditional mean models. First, a number of often applied nonlinear conditional mean models are introduced and their main properties discussed. The next section is devoted to techniques of building nonlinear models. Ways of computing...

This article contains a review of multivariate GARCH models. Most common GARCH models are presented and their properties considered. This also includes semiparametric and nonparametric GARCH models. Existing specification and misspecification tests are discussed. Finally, there is an empirical...

We use Bayesian techniques to select factors in a general multifactor asset pricing model. From a given set of 15 factors we evaluate all possible pricing models by the extent to which they describe the data as given by the posterior model probabilities. Interest rates, premiums, returns on...

In this paper we propose a Lagrange multiplier test for volatility interactions among markets or assets. The null hypothesis is the Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH model in which volatility of an asset is described only through lagged squared innovations and volatility of its own. The...

Starting from a linear error correction model the stability and linearity of a German M1 moneyt demand function are investigated, applying smooth transition regression techniques. Using seasonally unadjusted data from 1961 (1) to 1990 (2) it is found that the money demand equation is both linear...

This paper analyzes the net barter terms of trade measured by the primary commodity price index relative to the index of unit values of export of manufactures from industrial countries. The starting-point is that the series is stationary but possibly nonlinear. Statistical tests indicate that...

The paper is concerned with testing super exogeneity in a single equation that can either be linear or partially nonlinear. A joint test for testing both weak exogeneity and a form of invariance, which together amount to super exogeneity, is presented and its properties discussed. The...

In this paper we introduce the STAR-STGARCH model that can characterize nonlinear behaviour both in the conditional mean and the conditional variance. A modelling cycle for this family of models, consisting of specification, estimation, and evaluation stages is constructed. Misspecification...

In this paper we introduce the Smooth Permanent Surge [SPS] model. The model is an integrated non lineal moving average process with possibly unit roots in the moving average coefficients. The process nests the Stochastic Permanent Break [STOPBREAK] process by Engle and Smith (1999) and in a...