Showing 1 - 10 of 86
In Bayesian analysis of VAR-models, and especially in forecasting applications, the Minnesota prior of Litterman is … report on the forecasting performance of the different prior distributions considered in the paper. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649366
Properties of three well-known and frequently applied first-order models for modelling and forecasting volatility in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423881
We use Bayesian techniques to select factors in a general multifactor asset pricing model. From a given set of 15 factors we evaluate all possible pricing models by the extent to which they describe the data as given by the posterior model probabilities. Interest rates, premiums, returns on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423773
several of its variants. We put emphasis on new methods for testing for STAR nonlinearity, model evaluation, and forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649222
forecasting study. We include both single equation and multiple equation methods. A VAR model in first differences with and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649206
We propose a seasonal cointegration model [SECM] for quarterly data which includes variables with different numbers of unit roots and thus needs to be transformed in different ways in order to yield stationarity. A Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to investigate the consequences of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649231
-dimensional macroeconomic data set. Results show that the seasonal cointegration model improves forecasting accuracy, compared with the standard … by Johansen and Schaumburg seems to work better than the original model presented by Lee (1992). An empirical forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190852
In this paper we propose a Lagrange multiplier test for volatility interactions among markets or assets. The null hypothesis is the Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH model in which volatility of an asset is described only through lagged squared innovations and volatility of its own. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423784
This article contains a review of multivariate GARCH models. Most common GARCH models are presented and their properties considered. This also includes semiparametric and nonparametric GARCH models. Existing specification and misspecification tests are discussed. Finally, there is an empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004961388
In this paper we propose a multivariate GARCH model with a time-varying conditional correlation structure. The new Double Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH model extends the Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH model of Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2005) by including...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005056490