We use Bayesian techniques to select factors in a general multifactor asset pricing model. From a given set of 15 factors we evaluate all possible pricing models by the extent to which they describe the data as given by the posterior model probabilities. Interest rates, premiums, returns on...

This paper provides evidence on the use of stochastic discount factors in the evaluation of portfolio performance. First we discuss evaluation in this setting, and relates it to traditional mean-variance analysis. We then use Monte Carlo experiments to examine the small sample properties of...

In this paper we discuss the significant computational simplification that occurs when option pricing is approached through the change of numeraire technique. The original impetus was a recently published paper (Hoang, Powell, Shi 1999) on endowment options; in the present paper we extend these...

We develop a structural bond pricing approach and implement it on a large panel of US industrial bonds using an efficient maximum likelihood methodology. We evaluate the model's ability to predict yield spread levels and changes out-of-sample. Errors are smaller and distinctly less variable than...

This paper uses daily capital flows to the Swedish bond market to analyse the relative information endowment of domestic and foreign investors. Using the standard framework of a noisy rational expectations equilibrium it is shown that foreign investors are, on average, better informed than...

This paper proposes that the introduction of non-redundant assets can endogenously modify trader participation in financial markets, which can lead to a lower market premium and a higher interest rate. We demonstrate this mechanism in a tractable exchange economy with endogenous participation....

This paper analyzes how bond option prices are affected by different types of monetary policy. Analytical results from a general equilibrium model with sticky wages show that employment or output targeting typically give lower bond option prices than inflation targeting.

Abel (2002) shows that pessimism and doubt in the subjective distribution of the growth rate of consumption reduce the riskfree rate puzzle and the equity premium puzzle. We quantify the amount of pessimism and doubt in survey data on US consumption and income. Individual forecasters are in fact...

This paper is concerned with modelling time series by single hidden-layer feedforward neural network models. A coherent modelling strategy based on statistical inference is presented. Variable selection is carried out using existing techniques. The problem of selecting the number of hidden units...

Active portfolio management is associated with a costly search for information. This paper provides evidence on how this costly search affects the performance of European-based mutual funds that are actively managed and invest in Asia and Europe. The paper examines both the search for superior...