In this paper, which is a substantial extension of the earlier essay Björk (2001), we give an overview of some recent work on the geometric properties of the evolution of the forward rate curve in an arbitrage free bond market. The main problems to be discussed are as follows. <p> 1. When is a...</p>

We consider forward rate rate models of HJM type, as well as more general infinite dimensional SDEs, where the volatility/diffusion term is stochastic in the sense of being driven by a separate hidden Markov process. <p> Within this framework we use the previously developed Hilbert space...</p>

For finite dimensional factor models, the paper studies general quadratic term structures. These term structures include as special cases the affine term structures and the Gaussian quadratic term structures, previously studied in the literature. We show, however, that there are other,...

This paper is a selective survey of new or recent methods to extract information about market expectations from asset prices for monetary policy purposes. Traditionally, interest rates and forward exchange rates have been used to extract expected means of future interest rates, exchange rates...

We investigate the term structure of forward and futures prices for models where the price processes are allowed to be driven by a general marked point process as well as by a multidimensional Wiener process. Within an infinite dimensional HJM-type model for futures and forwards we study the...

We consider interest rate models of Heath-Jarrow-Morton type where the forward rates are driven by a multidimensional Wiener process, and where the volatility structure is allowed to be a smooth functional of the present forward rate curve. <p> In a recent paper (to appear in "Mathematical Finance"...</p>

The purpose of this essay is to give an overview of some recent workconcerning structural properties of the evolution of the forward rate curve in an arbitrage free bond market. The main problems to be discussed are as follows. <p> <p> 1. When is a given forward rate model consistent with a given...</p></p>

The British pound left the ERM on 16 September 1992 after a period of turbulence. UK monetary policy soon shifted to lower short interest rates and an inflation target was announced. This paper uses daily option prices to estimate how the market's probability distribution of the future...

We consider interest rate models of Heath-Jarrow-Morton type, where the forward rates are driven by a multidimensional Wiener process, and where the volatility is allowed to be an arbitrary smooth functional of the present forward rate curve. Using ideas from differential geometry as well as...

We consider interest rate models where the forward rates are allowed to be driven by a multidimensional Wiener process as well as by a marked point process. Assuming a deterministic volatility structure, and using ideas from systems and control theory, we investigate when the input-output map...