Forecasts from seasonal cointegration models are compared with those from a standard cointegration model based on first differences and seasonal dummies. The effects of restricting or not restricting seasonal intercepts in the seasonal cointegration models are examined as well as the recently...

We propose a seasonal cointegration model [SECM] for quarterly data which includes variables with different numbers of unit roots and thus needs to be transformed in different ways in order to yield stationarity. A Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to investigate the consequences of...

In Bayesian analysis of VAR-models, and especially in forecasting applications, the Minnesota prior of Litterman is frequently used. In many cases other prior distributions provide better forecasts and are preferable from a theoretical standpoint. This paper considers the numerical procedures...

A bivariate second-order VAR model of money growth and inflation is specified and estimatedby means of least squares. The bias of the parameter estimates is approximated in three ways and new, bias-reduced estimates are computed using the approximations. The effects of bias reduction on...