The authors show that exported products exit the US market sooner if they violate the Heckscher-Ohlin notion of comparative advantage. Crucially, this pattern is stronger when exporting country has a well-developed banking system, measured by a high ratio of bank credit over the GDP. Banks thus...

The decline in private savings since 1982 is arguably the most important problem in high debt countries. A reversal of the trend is essential if growth is to be restored. Three factors predominate : 1) the extent of intertemporal substitution; 2) attitudes toward risk; and 3) private/public...

This paper contains a numerical listing of working papers produced by the Policy, Planning, and External Affairs Complex. Each citation contains a brief abstract, and the contact point for the paper.

The sharp drop in private savings in the 1990s in Colombia can be attributed to a decline in private disposable income and, to a lesser extent, to growth in consumption. The permanent decline in private disposable income in Colombia between 1950 and 990 is closely linked to tax increases. This...

The authors examine the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. Using a simple three-period model, they show that if households expect to face binding constraints on borrowing in bad states of nature (when the economy is in a long trough...

If developing countries follow the same paths that industrialized countries have followed, saving for retirement will initially become more important as the population growth rate declines. To calculate the potential importance of life-cycle savings (saving for retirement), the paper presents a...

In the 1990s macroeconomic policies improved in a majority of developing countries, but the growth dividend from such improvement fell short of expectations, and a policy agenda focused on stability turned out to be associated with a multiplicity of financial crises. The authors take a...

Commodity stabilization funds are hard-currency savings to protect against a fall in income for commodity exports in the presence of borrowing constraints. The authors develop the optimal rules for deposits in and withdrawals from such a fund by using a benchmark model of precautionary savings...

The author explores a possible link between financial development and trade in manufactures. His theoretical model focuses on the role of financial intermediaries in facilitating large-scale, high-return projects. Results show that economies with better developed financial sectors have a...