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Recently there has been a resurgence of interest in the study of optimal monetary policy under uncertainty. This book …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012420009
This paper proposes a method for separating economic time series into a smooth component whose mean varies over time (the trend') and a stationary component (the cycle'). The aim is to make the trends as smooth as possible while also producing cycles with plausible properties. While the main...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471343
Errors in probabilistic reasoning have been the focus of much psychology research and are among the original topics of modern behavioral economics. This chapter reviews theory and evidence on this topic, with the goal of facilitating more systematic study of belief biases and their integration...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480852
deep uncertainty resulting from technical change, imperfect information, coordination hurdles and structural breaks. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481880
Heuristic models have been proposed for many domains of choice. We compare heuristic models of intertemporal choice, which can account for many of the known intertemporal choice anomalies, to discounting models. We conduct an out-of-sample, cross-validated comparison of intertemporal choice...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457718
Can heuristic information processing affect important product markets? We explore whether the tendency to focus on the left-most digit of a number affects how used car buyers incorporate odometer values in their purchase decisions. Analyzing over 22 million wholesale used-car transactions, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461629
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We study the optimal pattern of outlays for a single firm pursuing an R&D program over time. In the deterministic case, (a) the amount of progress required to complete the project is known, and (b) the relationship between outlays and progress is known. In this case, it is optimal to increase...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477422
When all financial assets have risky returns, the mean-variance portfolio model is potentially subject to two types of bliss points. One bliss point arises when a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function displays negative marginal utility for sufficiently large end-of-period wealth, such as in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478302