Growth and inflation in Turkey have been volatile over the last two decades. It would, therefore, be useful to identify indicators that anticipate economic conditions and inflation. This paper investigates the predictive performance of economic indicators for inflation and real output growth in...

Honduras’s Third Review under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and Request for Waiver and Modification of Performance Criteria are discussed. The current stance of monetary and exchange rate policies are broadly appropriate, and financial sector reforms are proceeding. Progress...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes inflation in Norway with a view to shedding light on this surprising development and the possible near-term course of inflation, using statistical and econometric analyses. The paper reviews recent developments of monetary policy and inflation in Norway,...

This Selected Issues paper on the Kingdom of Lesotho reviews the broad objectives and key institutional features of the Common Monetary Area (CMA) relating to currency arrangements. The CMA Agreement provides for the three small member countries to have access to South African capital and money...

This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that Norway’s real mainland GDP growth rebounded strongly in 2004, after a slowdown that began in late 2002. Very supportive monetary conditions, high oil prices, rising housing prices, strengthening consumer and business confidence, and an...

This paper outlines a simple approach for incorporating extraneous predictions into structural models. The method allows the forecaster to combine predictions derived from any source in a way that is consistent with the underlying structure of the model. The method is flexible enough that...

The staff report for the 2005 Article IV Consultation on the Republic of Estonia focuses on the economic outlook and risks. Robust economic growth continues, largely driven by domestic demand. Estonia has achieved significant nominal convergence; meeting all of the Maastricht criteria, save for...

Turkey is an interesting case study because it was one of the hardest hit emerging economies by the global financial crisis, with a year-over-year contraction of 15 percent during the first quarter of 2009. At the same time, anticipating the fallout from the crisis, the Central Bank of the...

Sweden’s economy has re-gained speed, following supportive macroeconomic policies and strong household demand. Employment has been rising, but the labor force expanded even more, resulting in higher unemployment mostly among vulnerable groups. Inflation remains very low, driven by...

This staff report discusses Seychelles 2013 Article IV Consultation, Seventh Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criterion. The repayment of domestic debt, a preference for foreign financing, and shallow domestic financial markets have resulted in...