We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale underlying the capacity constraint theory (Macklem...

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density forecasts from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. We exploit the panel dimension in this dataset to examine whether this distribution became less stable following the Great...

The maintenance of financial stability is a key objective of monetary policy, but the record of regulators in achieving this has been lamentable in recent years. This failure has been matched by an equivalent inability to establish an appropriate theoretical basis for financial regulation. In...

"In this incisive fifth edition of Financial Crises and Recession in the Global Economy, Roy E. Allen examines the major financial instabilities, crises, and evolutionary trends since the 1970s and through the recent Covid-19 pandemic. Providing empirical research on the relation between money...