The purpose of this paper is to examine Austrian foreign trade and estimate the country’s export function. The analysis is based on the gravity model of trade in the log-log form, augmented by additional variables in order to control for the impact of institutions on decision-making. Our panel...

This paper focuses on how to calibrate models used to stress test the most important risks in the banking system. Based on the results of a verification of the Czech National Bank’s stress testing methodology, the paper argues that stress tests should be calibrated conservatively and slightly...

This paper introduces a model for stress testing of probability of default of individuals. The model rests on assumption that the individual defaults if his savings fall below zero. The probability of default is then described as a function of several macroeconomic indicators such as wages,...

We provide a macro stress-testing model for banks' market and funding liquidity risks with a survival period of one and three months. The model takes into account the impact of both bank-specific and market-wide scenarios and considers both the first- and second-round effects of shocks. The...

The recent financial crisis emphasised the need for effective financial stability analyses and tools for detecting systemic risk. This paper looks at assessment of banking sector resilience through stress testing. We argue such analyses are valuable even in emerging economies that suffer from...

This article presents the results of stress tests of the Czech banking sector conducted using models of credit risk and credit growth broken down by sector. The use of these models enables the stress tests to be linked to the CNB’s official quarterly macroeconomic forecast. In addition, the...

This paper gives an overview of the credit risk model that has been developed for the Estonian banking system. The non-performing loans and loan loss provisions of the four largest banks and the rest of the banking sector have been modelled conditional on the underlying economic conditions:...

This study deals with credit risk modelling and stress testing within the context of a Merton-type one-factor model. We analyse the corporate and household sectors of the Czech Republic and Germany to find determining variables of credit risk in both countries. We find that a set of similar...