policy analysis. It suggests that the best method of solving the puzzle implies a close connection between theory and …

literature. An advantage here is that the asymptotic distribution theory is standard. The performance of the tests is compared to …

We propose a seasonal cointegration model [SECM] for quarterly data which includes variables with different numbers of … forecast mean squared error criterion and certain parameter estimation results indicate that, in practice, a cointegration … forecast, is an ordinary VAR model, also in annual differences. -- Seasonal cointegration ; forecasting …