We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

inflation strongly and persistently, (ii) lead to statistically weak negative effects on activity, (iii) contributed to … having a stronger effect on inflation expectations. Quantitatively, increasing political pressure by half as much as Nixon …

We propose a seasonal cointegration model [SECM] for quarterly data which includes variables with different numbers of … forecast mean squared error criterion and certain parameter estimation results indicate that, in practice, a cointegration … forecast, is an ordinary VAR model, also in annual differences. -- Seasonal cointegration ; forecasting …

inflation behaves as if prices are nearly fully sticky (flexible). Using (conventional) measures of inflation that understate …

fluctuations associated with these events are also discussed, as is their role in the recent surge of inflation, with a particular …

inflation expectations. We develop this measure using assumptions common in economic analysis of open economies. Using quarterly …

unemployment-inflation tradeoff since 1995 …

, according to the Johansen procedure, cointegration fails to hold the farther out the forecasts extend. At the one year ahead …