This paper is concerned with modelling time series by single hidden-layer feedforward neural network models. A coherent modelling strategy based on statistical inference is presented. Variable selection is carried out using existing techniques. The problem of selecting the number of hidden units...

This paper contains a forecasting exercise on 30 time series, ranging on several fields, from economy to ecology. The statistical approach to artificial neural networks modelling developed by the author is compared to linear modelling and to other three well-known neural network modelling...

We consider a leader and a subordinate he appoints who engage in team production. The public observes the organization's performance, but is unable to determine the separate contributions of the leader and of the subordinate. The leader may therefore claim credit for the good work of his...