Most of the literature on monetary policy delegation assumes that the government can credibly commit to the delegation contract, an assumption criticized by McCallum. This paper provides foundations for the assumption that renegotiating a delegation contract can be costly by illustrating how...

We find that contrary to common perception, cooperation as equilibrium of the infinitely repeated discounted prisoner's dilemma is in many relevant cases not very plausible, or at least questionable: for a significant subset of the payoff-discount factor parameter space cooperation equilibria...

We study the consequences of 'leniency' - reduced legal sanctions for wrongdoers who spontaneously self-report to law enforcers - on corruption, drug dealing, and other forms of sequential, bilateral, illegal trade. We find that when not properly designed, leniency may be highly...

This paper is concerned with modelling time series by single hidden-layer feedforward neural network models. A coherent modelling strategy based on statistical inference is presented. Variable selection is carried out using existing techniques. The problem of selecting the number of hidden units...

This paper contains a forecasting exercise on 30 time series, ranging on several fields, from economy to ecology. The statistical approach to artificial neural networks modelling developed by the author is compared to linear modelling and to other three well-known neural network modelling...