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preciseness of knowledge, a potentially serious violation of the rationality assumption in economics. Following these results a … growing literature in economics has incorporated overconfidence in models of, for instance, financial markets. In this paper …
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Abel (2002) shows that pessimism and doubt in the subjective distribution of the growth rate of consumption reduce the riskfree rate puzzle and the equity premium puzzle. We quantify the amount of pessimism and doubt in survey data on US consumption and income. Individual forecasters are in fact...
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