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This paper proposes a simple explanation for the frequent appearance of a price puzzle in VARs designed for monetary policy analysis. It suggests that the best method of solving the puzzle implies a close connection between theory and empirics rather than the introduction of a commodity price....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001600038
In this note, we consider the contradiction between the fact that the best fit for the UK consumption data in Davidson et al. (1978) is obtained using an equation with an intercept but without an error correction term, whereas the equation with error correction and without the intercept has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001714625
This study consists of an examination of productivity growth following three major technological breakthroughs: the … original invention until a substantial increase in the rate of productivity growth can be observed. There is also strong … persuasive direct evidence that the steam engine producing industry and electric machinery had particularly high productivity …
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-varying whereas the correlation remain constant over time. Under the parameterized alternative hypothesis the variance may change …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001924637
Few propositions in macroeconomics are less controversial than long-run money neutrality, yet clear and robust empirical support has not been found in time series studies. Bernanke and Mihov (1998) are comparatively successful in this hunt, but their output response to monetary policy shocks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001600067
In this paper we derive a parameter constancy test of a stationary vector autoregressive model against the hypothesis that the parameters of the model change smoothly over time. A single structural break is contained in this alternative hypothesis as a special case. The test is a generalization...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001693105
forecast mean squared error criterion and certain parameter estimation results indicate that, in practice, a cointegration …We propose a seasonal cointegration model [SECM] for quarterly data which includes variables with different numbers of … forecast, is an ordinary VAR model, also in annual differences. -- Seasonal cointegration ; forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001600047