In this paper we derive tests for parameter constancy when the data generating process is non-stationary against the hypothesis that the parameters of the model change smoothly over time. To obtain the asymptotic distributions of the tests we generalize many theoretical results, as well as new...

In this paper we introduce the Smooth Permanent Surge [SPS] model. The model is an integrated non lineal moving average process with possibly unit roots in the moving average coefficients. The process nests the Stochastic Permanent Break [STOPBREAK] process by Engle and Smith (1999) and in a...

In this paper we study a fairly general Wiener driven model for the term structure of forward prices. The model, under a fixed martingale measure, Q, consists of two infinite dimensional stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The first system is a standard HJM model for (forward) interest...

We consider forward rate rate models of HJM type, as well as more general infinite dimensional SDEs, where the volatility/diffusion term is stochastic in the sense of being driven by a separate hidden Markov process. Within this framework we use the previously developed Hilbert space realization...

This paper examines how investor and capital flows into mutual funds in the Swedish pension system are related to fund characteristics. Similarly to U.S. studies, we show that individuals chase past returns and have a strong preference for lower-fee funds. However, our results suggest that past...

This paper explores the profitability of portfolio-based momentum strategies. The data consists of all NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ stocks on the CRSP database. The analysis considers the period July 1963 to December 2002 and the tests are performed on portfolios formed on industry, size and...

In this paper, I obtain new measures of the value of active portfolio management by forming replicating portfolios. These measures allow for a separate evaluation of fund managers' strategic and tactical decisions. I also obtain new evidence on the value of trading by decomposing it into...

This paper studies the relation between fund performance and the fund manager's investment strategy, which is based on the characteristics of the portfolio. The results show that neither momentum characteristics nor the valuation of stocks can explain differences in fund performance. However,...