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In this note, we consider the contradiction between the fact that the best fit for the UK consumption data in Davidson et al. (1978) is obtained using an equation with an intercept but without an error correction term, whereas the equation with error correction and without the intercept has...
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forecast mean squared error criterion and certain parameter estimation results indicate that, in practice, a cointegration …We propose a seasonal cointegration model [SECM] for quarterly data which includes variables with different numbers of … forecast, is an ordinary VAR model, also in annual differences. -- Seasonal cointegration ; forecasting …
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In this paper we derive a parameter constancy test of a stationary vector autoregressive model against the hypothesis that the parameters of the model change smoothly over time. A single structural break is contained in this alternative hypothesis as a special case. The test is a generalization...
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