This paper considers the large sample behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator of random effects models with serial correlation in the form of AR(1) for the idiosyncratic or time-specific error component. Consistent estimation and asymptotic normality as N and/or T grows large is established...

This paper is concerned with maximum likelihood based inference in random effects models with serial correlation. Allowing for individual effects we introduce serial correlation of general form in the time effects as well as the idiosyncratic errors. A straightforward maximum likelihood...

This paper is concerned with efficient GMM estimation and inference in GARCH models. Sufficient conditions for the estimator to be consistent and asymptotically normal are established for the GARCH(1,1) conditional variance process. In addition efficiency results are obtained in the general...

Abel (2002) shows that pessimism and doubt in the subjective distribution of the growth rate of consumption reduce the riskfree rate puzzle and the equity premium puzzle. We quantify the amount of pessimism and doubt in survey data on US consumption and income. Individual forecasters are in fact...

This paper proposes that the introduction of non-redundant assets can endogenously modify trader participation in financial markets, which can lead to a lower market premium and a higher interest rate. We demonstrate this mechanism in a tractable exchange economy with endogenous participation....

In this paper, I obtain new measures of the value of active portfolio management by forming replicating portfolios. These measures allow for a separate evaluation of fund managers' strategic and tactical decisions. I also obtain new evidence on the value of trading by decomposing it into...

Bernardo and Ledoit (2000) develop a very appealing framework to compute pricing bounds based on the so-called gain-loss ratio. Their method has many advantages and very interesting properties and so far one important drawback: the complexity of the numerical computation of the pricing bounds....

This paper analyzes how bond option prices are affected by different types of monetary policy. Analytical results from a general equilibrium model with sticky wages show that employment or output targeting typically give lower bond option prices than inflation targeting. -- inflation targeting ;...

This paper is concerned with modelling time series by single hidden-layer feedforward neural network models. A coherent modelling strategy based on statistical inference is presented. Variable selection is carried out using existing techniques. The problem of selecting the number of hidden units...