In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The approach adopted here is based on the decomposition of the covariances into correlations and standard deviations. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two...

In this paper we derive conditions for the conditional covariance matrix to be positive definite in a general vector ARCH model. The conditions can be easily extended to the diagonal vector GARCH model. For the general vector GARCH model, analytical expressions for the conditions in terms of the...

This paper studies the effects of financial liberalization and banking crises on growth. It shows that financial liberalization spurs on average economic growth. Banking crises are harmful for growth, but to a lesser extent in countries with open financial systems and good institutions. The...

In this paper we propose a method for determining the number of regimes in threshold autoregressive models using smooth transition autoregression as a tool. As the smooth transition model is just an approximation to the threshold autoregressive one, no asymptotic properties are claimed for the...

In this paper we introduce the Smooth Permanent Surge [SPS] model. The model is an integrated non lineal moving average process with possibly unit roots in the moving average coefficients. The process nests the Stochastic Permanent Break [STOPBREAK] process by Engle and Smith (1999) and in a...

Over recent years, several nonlinear time series models have been proposed in the literature. One model that has found a large number of successful applications is the threshold autoregressive model (TAR). The TAR model is a piecewise linear process whose central idea is to change the parameters...

This paper deals with a dynamic adjustment process in which adjustment of a key variable input (labor) towards its desired level is modeled in a panel data context. The partial adjustment type model is extended to incorporate firm- and time-specific adjustment parameter. A flexible (translog)...

The availability of new internationally-harmonized innovation survey data collected from OECD countries has created some interesting opportunities for studying the following two key areas: (1) the determinants of innovation behavior at firm level, and (2) innovation as an important factor...

This paper is concerned with modelling time series by single hidden-layer feedforward neural network models. A coherent modelling strategy based on statistical inference is presented. Variable selection is carried out using existing techniques. The problem of selecting the number of hidden units...