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In this paper we introduce the Smooth Permanent Surge [SPS] model. The model is an integrated non lineal moving average process with possibly unit roots in the moving average coefficients. The process nests the Stochastic Permanent Break [STOPBREAK] process by Engle and Smith (1999) and in a...
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; multivariate volatility model ; random coefficient model ; volatility forecasting …
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In this paper we derive tests for parameter constancy when the data generating process is non-stationary against the hypothesis that the parameters of the model change smoothly over time. To obtain the asymptotic distributions of the tests we generalize many theoretical results, as well as new...
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volatility/diffusion term is stochastic in the sense of being driven by a separate hidden Markov process. Within this framework … conditions for the existence of a finite dimensional Markovian realizations for the stochastic volatility models. We illustrate … the theory by analyzing a number of concrete examples. -- HJM models ; stochastic volatility ; factor models ; forward …
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