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applications to the term structure of interest rates, the time inconsistency of optimal monetary policy, the effects of …
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The full Bayesian treatment of error component models typically relies on data augmentation to produce the required inference. Never stricly necessary a direct approach is always possible though not necessarily practical. The mechanics of direct sampling are outlined and a template for including...
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We propose a seasonal cointegration model [SECM] for quarterly data which includes variables with different numbers of unit roots and thus needs to be transformed in different ways in order to yield stationarity. A Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to investigate the consequences of...
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This paper contains a forecasting exercise on 30 time series, ranging on several fields, from economy to ecology. The … in comparison to other more sophisticated ANN models. -- Neural networks ; forecasting ; nonlinear time series …
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application to the income-consumption relationship, using monthly US time series. Evidence is found to support the claim that the … business cycle is thus a common factor in distributions of the type defined and discussed in the paper. -- bivariate time … series ; business cycles ; conditional distribution ; consumption-income relationship ; copula ; multivariate time …
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