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We propose a seasonal cointegration model [SECM] for quarterly data which includes variables with different numbers of … forecast mean squared error criterion and certain parameter estimation results indicate that, in practice, a cointegration … forecast, is an ordinary VAR model, also in annual differences. -- Seasonal cointegration ; forecasting …
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In this note, we consider the contradiction between the fact that the best fit for the UK consumption data in Davidson et al. (1978) is obtained using an equation with an intercept but without an error correction term, whereas the equation with error correction and without the intercept has...
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This paper proposes a simple explanation for the frequent appearance of a price puzzle in VARs designed for monetary policy analysis. It suggests that the best method of solving the puzzle implies a close connection between theory and empirics rather than the introduction of a commodity price....
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The central bank's optimal reaction to foreign and domestic shocks is analyzed in an inflation targeting model allowing for incomplete exchange rate pass-through. Limited pass-through is incorporated through nominal rigidities in an aggregate supply-aggregate demand model derived from some...
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