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In this note, we consider the contradiction between the fact that the best fit for the UK consumption data in Davidson et al. (1978) is obtained using an equation with an intercept but without an error correction term, whereas the equation with error correction and without the intercept has...
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Abel (2002) shows that pessimism and doubt in the subjective distribution of the growth rate of consumption reduce the riskfree rate puzzle and the equity premium puzzle. We quantify the amount of pessimism and doubt in survey data on US consumption and income. Individual forecasters are in fact...
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forecast mean squared error criterion and certain parameter estimation results indicate that, in practice, a cointegration …We propose a seasonal cointegration model [SECM] for quarterly data which includes variables with different numbers of … forecast, is an ordinary VAR model, also in annual differences. -- Seasonal cointegration ; forecasting …
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