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Stylized facts of financial time series and three popular models of volatility
Malmsten, Hans (contributor); Teräsvirta, Timo (contributor) - 2004 - [Elektronische Ressource], Rev. September 3, 2004
Properties of three well-known and frequently applied first-order models for modelling and forecasting volatility in … Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH), the Exponential GARCH and the Autoregressive Stochastic Volatility model. The focus is on … heteroskedasticity ; evaluation of volatility models ; exponential GARCH ; GARCH ; modelling return series ; stochastic volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002199620
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A time series model for an exchange rate in a target zone with applications
Lundbergh, Stefan (contributor);  … - 2003 - [Elektronische Ressource]
In this paper we introduce a flexible target zone model that is capable of characterizing the dynamic behaviour of an exchange rate implied by the original target zone model of Krugman (1991) and its modifications. Our framework also enables the modeller to estimate an implicit target zone if it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001786381
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Testing parameter constancy in unit root autoregressive models against continuous change
He, Changli (contributor); Sandberg, Rickard (contributor) - 2005 - [Elektronische Ressource], Rev. February 8, 2005
In this paper we derive tests for parameter constancy when the data generating process is non-stationary against the hypothesis that the parameters of the model change smoothly over time. To obtain the asymptotic distributions of the tests we generalize many theoretical results, as well as new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002570513
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Testing the unit root hypothesis against the logistic smooth transition autoregressive model
Eklund, Bruno (contributor) - 2003 - [Elektronische Ressource]
In this paper two simple tests to distinguish between unit root processes and stationary nonlinear processes are proposed. New limit distribution results are provided, together with two F type test statistics for the joint unit root and linearity hypothesis against a specific nonlinear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001845685
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A nonlinear alternative to the unit root hypothesis
Eklund, Bruno (contributor) - 2003 - [Elektronische Ressource]
This paper considers testing the unit root hypothesis against a smooth transition autoregressive model as the alternative. The model specification makes it possible to discriminate between nonstationary random walk and stationary nonlinear processes. Some new limit results are presented,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001845699
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Forecasting with artificial network models
Rech, Gianluigi (contributor) - 2002 - [Elektronische Ressource]
This paper contains a forecasting exercise on 30 time series, ranging on several fields, from economy to ecology. The statistical approach to artificial neural networks modelling developed by the author is compared to linear modelling and to other three well-known neural network modelling...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001645582
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Multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with smooth transitions in conditional correlations
Silvennoinen, Annastiina (contributor);  … - 2005 - [Elektronische Ressource], Rev. October 2005
; Dynamic conditional correlation ; Return comovement ; Volatility model evaluation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002570445
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Evaluating models of autoregressive conditional duration
Meitz, Mika (contributor); Teräsvirta, Timo (contributor) - 2004 - [Elektronische Ressource], First version March 2004, revised December 2004
This paper contains two novelties. First, a unified framework for testing and evaluating the adequacy of an estimated autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model is presented. Second, two new classes of ACD models, the smooth transition ACD model and the time-varying ACD model, are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001959574
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Univariate nonlinear time series models
Teräsvirta, Timo (contributor) - 2005 - [Elektronische Ressource]
In this paper developments in the analysis of univariate nonlinear time series are considered. First a number of commonly used nonlinear models are presented. The next section is devoted to methods of testing linearity, which is an important part of nonlinear model building. Techniques of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002679532
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Evaluating exponential GARCH models
Malmsten, Hans (contributor) - 2004 - [Elektronische Ressource], Rev. September 3, 2004
tests are also investigated by simulations. -- evalation of volatility models ; modelling volatility ; parameter constancy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002199638