This paper deals with the question how to model health effects after the cessation of a randomised controlled trial (RCT). Using clinical trial data on severe congestive heart failure patients we illustrate how survival beyond the cessation of a RCT can be predicted based on parametric survival...

The cost-effectiveness of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) based on a societal perspective is reassessed based on new medical evidence found in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI). Within a model framework using an individual state transition model the cost-effectiveness of 50-60 year old women...

Background: The Fracture Intervention Trial (FIT) showed that the bisphosphonate alendronate reduces the risk of fractures in women with low bone mass in the United States. Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness (cost per life-year gained and cost per quality-adjusted life-year, QALY,...

Experiments in psychology, where subjects estimate confidence intervals to a series of factual questions, have shown that individuals report far too narrow intervals. This has been interpreted as evidence of overconfidence in the preciseness of knowledge, a potentially serious violation of the...