The central bank's optimal objective function is analyzed in a small open economy model allowing for incomplete exchange rate pass-through. The results indicate that social welfare can only be marginally improved by including an explicit exchange-rate term in the delegated objective function,...

The performance of various monetary rules is investigated in an open economy with incomplete exchange rate pass-through. Implementing monetary policy through an exchange-rate augmented policy rule does not improve social welfare compared to using an optimized Taylor rule, irrespective of the...

Experiments in psychology, where subjects estimate confidence intervals to a series of factual questions, have shown that individuals report far too narrow intervals. This has been interpreted as evidence of overconfidence in the preciseness of knowledge, a potentially serious violation of the...