The recently-developed fiscal theory of price level determination contends that there is an important class of policy rules in which there exists a unique rational expectations solution that shows the price level to be dependent upon fiscal policy and independent of monetary variables. The...

Recently it has been argued that a monetary policy of nominal income and targeting" would result in dynamically unstable processes for output and inflation. That results holds in a" theoretical model that includes backward-looking IS an Phillips curve relations rather special and theoretically...

Topics covered in this survey paper include the following: distinguishing rules from discretion in practice; the feasibility of rule-like behavior by an independent central bank; optimal control vs. robustness as research strategies; choice among target variables; growth-rate vs. growing-level...

This paper argues, first, that it is inappropriate to presume that central banks will, in the absence of any tangible precommitment technology, inevitably behave in a `discretionary' fashion that implies an inflationary bias. Furthermore, there is no necessary tradeoff between `flexibility and...

This paper takes issue with two basic conclusions prevalent in the literature on central bank behavior. First, the paper argues that it is inappropriate to presume that central banks will, in the absence of any precommitment technology, necessarily behave in a 'discretionary' fashion that...

This paper addresses a prominent empirical failure of the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates under the assumption of rational expectations. This failure concerns the magnitude of slope coefficients in regressions of short rate (or long- rate) changes on long-short...

This paper investigates the theoretical and empirical properties of a model of aggregate supply behavior that was introduced in the 1970s but has received inadequate attention. The model postulates that price changes occur so as to gradually eliminate discrepancies between actual and...

This paper investigates empirically the possibility that a central bank could adhere to a macro-oriented monetary policy rule while also providing lender-of-last-resort services to the financial system. The method considered involves smoothing week-to-week movements of an interest rate...

This paper suggests that the relevant question concerning unit root' in the U.S. real GNP time series pertains to the relative importance of difference-stationary and trend-stationary components. Various analytical approaches indicate than an accurate answer is not obtainable with existing data....

This expository paper describes major developments during the second decade of rational-expectations macroeconomics, roughly 1982-1991. Topics attracting the most attention from researchers differed from those of 1972-1981, with considerable emphasis being devoted to technical mailers. Here the...