In this paper, we analyze the economic value of predicting stock index returns as well as volatility. On the basis of simple linear models, estimated recursively, we produce genuine out-of-sample forecasts for the return on the S&P 500 index and its volatility. Using monthly data from 1954 to...

Believers in the law of small numbers tend to overinfer the outcome of a random process after a small series of observations. They believe that small samples replicate the probability distribution properties of the population. We provide empirical evidence indicating that investors are...

Latvian employees have to choose a pension fund for the second-pillar of the Latvian pension system. These pension funds invest about 85% in domestic assets. In this paper, we address the question why this strong home bias might exist. Firstly, we conclude that the Latvian pension law is strict...

__Abstract__ The financial world does not have the best reputation. One of the problems is the perceived lack of integrity of financial markets, which is fuelled by examples of financial misconduct. I argue that with financial data becoming more widely available and constantly improving,...

To analyze the intertemporal interaction between the stock and bond market returns, we allow the conditional covariance matrix to vary over time according to a multivariate GARCH model similar to Bollerslev, Engle and Wooldridge (1988). We extend the model such that it allows for asymmetric...

The euro area has faced a high number of monetary and policy changes in the recent past as a consequence of the European integration process and, naturally, these developments have important implications for portfolio diversification and asset pricing. Therefore, this paper concentrates on the...

The mean-semivariance CAPM strongly outperforms the traditional mean-variance CAPM in terms of its ability to explain the cross-section of US stock returns. If regular beta is replaced by downside beta, the traditional risk-return relationship is restored. The downside betas of low-beta stocks...

The driving force behind the well-documented medium term momentum effect in stock returns is subject of much debate. Empirical papers that aim to find the determinants of this return continuation, seem to be almost exclusively restricted to US stock markets. Consequently, regional effects have...

Financial theory, resource-based theory and access to deal flow are used to explain syndication practices among European venture capital (VC) firms. The desire to share risk and increase portfolio diversification is a more important motive for syndication than the desire to access additional...

The present paper examines firm size effects on the decision of venture capital firms to participate in a venture capital investment syndication network. The authors submit that firm size effects in venture capital syndication are dependent on resource acquisition motives and transaction cost...