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A nonlinear long memory model for US unemployment

Dijk, D.J.C. van; Franses, Ph.H.B.F.; Paap, R. - Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute - 2000

Two important empirical features of monthly US unemployment are that shocks to the series seem rather persistent and that unemployment seems to rise faster in recessions than that it falls during expansions. To jointly capture these features of long memory and nonlinearity, respectively, we put...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005505011

Flexible Seasonal Long Memory and Economic Time Series

Ooms, M. - Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute - 1995

We discuss specification, frequency domain estimation and application of flexible fractionally integrated seasonal long memory time series models, which allow for 'chi-squared' (seasonal) unit root testing. We suggest periodogram regression and approximate ML estimation. We successfully apply a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004972223

Convergence and Persistence of Left-Right Political Orientations in The Netherlands 1978-1995

Eisinga, R.; Franses, Ph.H.B.F.; Ooms, M. - Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute - 1997

-Theory- Two theories about trends in left-right political orientations are juxtaposed: the persistence theory claiming that left-right orientations are highly resistant to change versus the irrelevance theory anticipating a move of mass publics towards the center of the left-right continuum....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004972274

Ten Things We Should Know About Time Series

McAleer, M.J.; Oxley, L. - Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute - 2010

Time series data affect many aspects of our lives. This paper highlights ten things we should all know about time series, namely: a good working knowledge of econometrics and statistics, an awareness of measurement errors, testing for zero frequency, seasonal and periodic unit roots, analysing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008484072

Modelling Long Memory Volatility in Agricultural Commodity Futures Returns

Tansuchat, R.; Chang, C-L.; McAleer, M.J. - Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute - 2009

, coffee, cotton, orange juice, Kansas City wheat, rubber, and palm oil. The class of fractional GARCH models, namely the … FIGARCH model of Baillie et al. (1996), FIEGACH model of Bollerslev and Mikkelsen (1996), and FIAPARCH model of Tse (1998 …), are modelled and compared with the GARCH model of Bollerslev (1986), EGARCH model of Nelson (1991), and APARCH model of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008570627

How Volatile is ENSO?

Chu, L.F.; McAleer, M.J.; Chen, C-C. - Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute - 2009

both the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) and ARMA(3,2)-GJR(1,1) models are suitable for modelling ENSO volatility. Moreover, 1998 is a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005034225

Adaptive Polar Sampling with an Application to a Bayes Measure of Value-at-Risk

Bauwens, L.; Bos, C.S.; Dijk, H.K. van - Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute - 1999

parsimony and robustness. APS is applied within a Bayesian analysis of a GARCH-mixture model which is used for the evaluation of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005051715

It Pays to Violate: How Effective are the Basel Accord Penalties?

Veiga, B. da; Chan, F.; McAleer, M.J. - Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute - 2009

The internal models amendment to the Basel Accord allows banks to use internal models to forecast Value-at-Risk (VaR) thresholds, which are used to calculate the required capital that banks must hold in reserve as a protection against negative changes in the value of their trading portfolios. As...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008484079

A simple test for GARCH against a stochastic volatility

Franses, Ph.H.B.F.; Leij, M.J. van der; Paap, R. - Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute - 2005

The GARCH model and the Stochastic Volatility [SV] model are competing but non-nested models to describe unobserved … volatility in asset returns. We propose a GARCH model with an additional error term, which can capture SV model properties, and … which can be used to test GARCH against SV. We discuss model representation, parameter estimation and a simple test for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005696115

Daily exchange rate behaviour and hedging of currency risk

Bos, C.S.; Mahieu, R.J.; Dijk, H.K. van - Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute - 2000

methods. The effects of several model characteristics (unit roots, GARCH, stochastic volatility, heavy tailed disturbance …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008570624