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Equations Model and the Johansen test for cointegration in a Vector Autoregressive model. The similar structure of the two …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008494036
We analyse the impact of the Engle and Granger (1987) article by its citations over time, and find evidence of a second life starting in the new millennium. Next, we propose a possible explanation of the success of this citation classic. We argue that the conditions for its success were just...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005051717
A Bayesian model averaging procedure is presented within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes and applied to two empirical issues. First, stability of the "Great Ratios" in U.S. macro-economic time series is investigated, together with the presence and e¤ects of permanent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005450863
time series dimension is large. The model allows for stochastic trends, cointegration, cross-equation correlations and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005450876
Economic forecasts and policy decisions are often informed by empirical analysis based on econometric models. However, inference based upon a single model, when several viable models exist, limits its usefulness. Taking account of model uncertainty, a Bayesian model averaging procedure is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005450886
periods. Since a linear combination of such series does not have to be a constant mean process, standard cointegration … Monte Carlo methods. The empirical results suggest the existence of a cointegration relation between US per capita …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005696110
Cointegration occurs when the long run multiplier of a vector autoregressive model exhibits rank reduction. Priors and … posteriors of the parameters of the cointegration model are therefore proportional to priors and posteriors of the long run … product of the adjustment parameters and the cointegrating vectors, i.e. the cointegration specification, and a matrix that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005696118
Using the standard linear model as a base, a unified theory of Bayesian Analyses of Cointegration Models is constructed … cointegration model. Using these priors, posterior results for the cointegration model are obtained using a Metropolis …-Hasting sampler. To compare the cointegration models mutually and with the vector autoregressive model under stationarity, we use two …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005696123
rank statistic. In the non-stationary cointegration case, the limiting distribution of the rank statistic is identical to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004991100
features of a model, such as cointegration, can improve policy analysis as it can improve estimation, inference and forecast … features of the VAR model. The features considered are cointegration, exogeneity, deterministic processes and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004991116