Showing 1 - 10 of 27
found to perform better in out-of-sample forecasting than a benchmark linear model. An empirical illustration for US GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008584688
Macroeconomic forecasts are frequently produced, published, discussed and used. The formal evaluation of such forecasts has a long research history. Recently, a new angle to the evaluation of forecasts has been addressed, and in this review we analyse some recent developments from that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008584651
Macroeconomic forecasting is not an easy task, in particular if future growth rates are forecasted in real time. This …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008584744
The accuracy of real-time forecasts of macroeconomic variables that are subject to revisions may crucially depend on the choice of data used to compare the forecasts against. We put forward a flexible time-varying parameter regression framework to obtain early estimates of the final value of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005450915
take account of them in estimating and forecasting IV. This paper investigates through Monte Carlo simulations the effects … of RV errors on estimating and forecasting IV with RV data. It is found that: (i) neglecting RV errors can lead to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008833191
This article proposes a modified method for the construction of diffusion indexes in macroeconomic forecasting using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004972197
With the advent of advanced data collection techniques, there is an increased interest in using econometric models to support decisions in marketing. Due to the sometimes specific nature of variables in marketing, the discipline uses econometric models that are rarely, if ever, used elsewhere....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004972205
Many companies collect stated preference data (SP) like intentions and satisfaction as well as revealed preference data (RP) like actual purchasing behavior. It seems relevant to examine the predictive usefulness of this information for future revealed preferences, that is, customer behavior. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004972221
forecasting study. We include both single equation and multiple equation methods. A VAR model in first differences with and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004972225
Experts may have domain-specific knowledge that is not included in a statistical model and that can improve forecasts. While one-step-ahead forecasts address the conditional mean of the variable, model-based forecasts for longer horizons have a tendency to convert to the unconditional mean of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004972226