Showing 1 - 10 of 175
Brazil has had a long period of high inflation. It peaked around 100 percent per year in 1964, decreased until the … crisis in the early 1980s. We show that the high-inflation period (1960-1994) was characterized by a combination of fiscal … deficits, passive monetary policy, and constraints on debt financing. The transition to the low-inflation period (1995 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479377
After the economic reforms that followed the National Revolution of the 1950s, Bolivia seemed positioned for sustained growth. Indeed, it achieved unprecedented growth from 1960 to 1977. The rapid accumulation of debt due to persistent deficits and a fixed exchange rate policy during the 1970s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479478
Structural vector autoregressions give conflicting results on the effects of technology shocks on hours. The results depend crucially on the assumed data generating process for hours per capita. We show that the standard measure of hours per capita has significant low frequency movements that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466978
whether shortages help predict inflation. Using a variety of different specifications, I find that this time-series measure of … shortages strongly predicts inflation, and contains information not captured by commodity prices, monetary aggregates, interest … rates, and other proposed predictors of inflation. This suggests that disequilibrium was an important part of the adjustment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473465
What accounts for inflation after 2008? We use the prominent pre-crisis Smets-Wouters (2007) model to address this … question. We find that due to price markup shocks alone inflation would have been 1% higher than observed and 0.5% higher that … responsible for the slow recovery of employment, though not for the initial drop. Monetary policy shocks predict an inflation rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457959
external instruments produce responses in output and inflation consistent with both textbook theory and conventional monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458442
We develop a novel method for the identification of monetary policy shocks. By applying natural language processing techniques to documents that Federal Reserve staff prepare in advance of policy decisions, we capture the Fed's information set. Using machine learning techniques, we then predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544696
Using data for the G7 countries, I estimate conditional correlations of employment and productivity, based on a decomposition of the two series into technology and non-technology components. The picture that emerges is hard to reconcile with the predictions of the standard Real Business Cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473117
This paper presents a theoretical basis fcr the srgunent that large exchange rate shocks - such as the rise of the dollar from 1980 to 1985 - may shift historical relationships between exchange rates and trade flows. We begin with partial models in which large exchange rate fluctuations lead to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477053
We ask how export demand shocks associated with the Asian financial crisis affected Chinese exporters. We construct firm-specific exchange rate shocks based on the pre-crisis destinations of firms' exports. Because the shocks were unanticipated and large, they are a plausible instrument for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464017