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Macroeconomic dynamics near the ZLB: a tale of two equilibria

Aruoba, S. Boragan; Schorfheide, Frank - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2013

This paper studies the dynamics of a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model near the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates. In addition to the standard targeted-inflation equilibrium, we consider a deflation equilibrium as well as a Markov sunspot...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010681653

Money and capital: a quantitative analysis

Aruoba, S. Boragan; Waller, Christopher J.; Wright, Randall - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2009

We study the effects of money (anticipated inflation) on capital formation. Previous papers on this topic adopt reduced …-form approaches, putting money in the utility function or imposing cash in advance, but use otherwise frictionless models. We follow a … literature that is more explicit about the frictions making money essential. This introduces several new elements, including a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005077876

Real-time macroeconomic monitoring: real activity, inflation, and interactions

Aruoba, S. Boragan; Diebold, Francis X. - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2010

The authors sketch a framework for monitoring macroeconomic activity in real-time and push it in new directions. In particular, they focus not only on real activity, which has received most attention to date, but also on inflation and its interaction with real activity. As for the recent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008627185

When do stock market booms occur? the macroeconomic and policy environments of 20th century booms

Bordo, Michael D.; Wheelock, David C. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2006

This paper studies the macroeconomic conditions and policy environments under which stock market booms occurred among ten developed countries during the 20th Century. We find that booms tended to occur during periods of above-average growth of real output, and below-average and falling...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352825

Inflation, monetary policy and stock market conditions: quantitative evidence from a hybrid latent-variable VAR

Bordo, Michael D.; Dueker, Michael J.; Wheelock, David C. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2009

This paper examines the association between inflation, monetary policy and U.S. stock market conditions during the second half of the 20th century. We use a latent-variable VAR to estimate the impact of inflation and other macroeconomic shocks on a latent index of stock market conditions. Our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352826

The monetary instrument matters

Gavin, William T.; Keen, Benjamin D.; Pakko, Michael R. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2005

This paper revisits the issue of money growth versus the interest rate as the instrument of monetary policy. Using a … of inflation relative to money growth depends on whether the central bank follows a money growth rule or an interest rate … rule. With a money growth rule, inflation is not persistent and the price level is much more volatile than the money supply …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352925

The great inflation: did the shadow know better?

Poole, William; Rasche, Robert H.; Wheelock, David C. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2008

The Shadow Open Market Committee was formed in 1973 in response to rising inflation and the apparent unwillingness of U.S. policymakers to implement policies necessary to maintain price stability. This paper describes how the Committee's policy views differed from those of most Federal Reserve...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352943

Monetary policy and stock market booms and busts in the 20th century

Bordo, Michael D.; Dueker, Michael J.; Wheelock, David C. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2007

This paper examines the association between monetary policy and stock market booms and busts in the United States, United Kingdom, and Germany during the 20th century. Booms tended to arise when output growth was rapid and inflation was low, and end within a few months of an increase in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005707680

Inflation risk and optimal monetary policy

Gavin, William T.; Keen, Benjamin D.; Pakko, Michael R. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2007

This paper shows that the optimal monetary policies recommended by New Keynesian models still imply a large amount of inflation risk. We calculate the term structure of inflation uncertainty in New Keynesian models when the monetary authority adopts the optimal policy. When the monetary policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490907

Monetary policy, the tax code, and the real effects of energy shocks

Gavin, William T.; Keen, Benjamin D.; Kydland, Finn E. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2013

behaves as a negative wealth effect and generates an immediate decline in output, investment, and hours worked. The large drop … in investment then causes a gradual but very persistent decline in the capital stock. That protracted decline in the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010662819