curves display similar patterns of instability and to examine lead-lag patterns in how individual inflation series change. We …

This paper asks whether a textbook Phillips curve can explain the behavior of core inflation in the euro area. A … critical feature of the analysis is that we measure core inflation with the weighted median of industry inflation rates, which … is less volatile than the common measure of inflation excluding food and energy prices. We find that fluctuations in core …

as a tool to compare the characteristics of European inflation dynamics with those observed in the U.S. We also analyze … the factors underlying inflation inertia by examining the cyclical behavior of marginal costs, as well as that of its two … is substantial, but in line with survey evidence and U.S. estimates, (c) inflation dynamics in the Euro area appear to …

public finances. We show that when the ECB misses its inflation target this has large heterogeneous fiscal consequences for … missing their inflation targets. They are also sizeable …

We document how supply-chain pressures, household inflation expectations, and firm pricing power interacted to induce … the pandemic-era surge in consumer price inflation in the euro area. Initially, supply-chain pressures increased inflation … through a cost-push channel and raised inflation expectations. Subsequently, the cost-push channel intensified as firms with …

try to prevent a cut in nominal wages. If inflation is so low that some nominal wages have to be cut, the strategic … advantage of the workers' induces higher unemployment in equilibrium. The upshot is a long run tradeoff between inflation and … unemployment for low levels of inflation. The prediction that low inflation involves higher unemployment in Europe but not in the …

function involving output and inflation gaps, increasing core spending would generate substantial welfare improvements …