This paper analyzes euro area and U.S. inflation dynamics since the beginning of the 1990s by estimating New Keynesian … hybrid Phillips curves with time-varying parameters. We measure inflation expectations by subjective forecasts from Consensus … results indicate that in both economic areas the inflation dynamics have steadily become more forward-looking over time. We …

This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation … expectations affect both inflation and output, and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect developments in these … variables. The analyses make use of a simple VAR model of inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap that allows for …

This paper examines recent changes in the cyclicality of euro area inflation. We estimate time-varying parameters for … become steeper since 2012. Thus, the current low level of inflation and persistently negative output gap increase the risk … that euro area inflation will stay below the monetary policy target for an extended period. …

economic agents´ inflation expectations. Real marginal costs are proxied by three different measures. The results suggest that … OECD inflation forecasts perform relatively well as a proxy for inflation expectations in the euro area, since under this … approach the European inflation process can be modeled using the forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve. However …

This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters’ data. We consider both inflation and … are based on subjective probability distributions of survey respondents. Our analysis indicates that individual inflation … inflation uncertainty has a negative impact on economic activity by decreasing output growth and increasing inflation and …

This paper examines inflation dynamics in Europe. Econometric specification tests with pooled European data are used to … proxy economic agents’ inflation expecta-tions. According to the results, the New Classical Phillips curve has satisfactory … Classical and Hybrid Phillips curves. We interpret our results as indicating that the European inflation process is not purely …

in principle less restrictive approach is applied to operationalising expectations. Direct measures of inflation … expectations, ie OECD forecasts, are used as empirical proxies of economic agents’ inflation expectations. The main interest is in … the euro area as a whole, although potential heterogeneity of inflation dynamics is also examined across eleven EMU …

imposing rational expectations, direct measures, ie OECD forecasts, are used to proxy economic agents’ inflation expectations … Classical and Hybrid Phillips curves. We interpret our results as indicating that the European inflation process is not purely … forward-looking, so that inflation cannot instantaneously adjust to new information. Consequently, even allowing for possible …

The present study examines empirically the inflation dynamics of the euro area. The focus of the analysis is on the … role of expectations in the inflation process. In six articles we relax rationality assumption and proxy expectations … curve specifications and find evidence that inflation cannot instantaneously adjust to changes in expectations. A possible …