Growth forecasts are at the heart of investment decisions and yet in emerging and developing markets they often receive limited support from quantitative models. This paper describes the main quantitative modelling techniques that have informed EBRD growth projections since 2009. The paper...

This paper analyses the accuracy of GDP growth forecasts prepared by the EBRD for 25 transition countries between 1994 and 2004. It provides the first comprehensive statistical analysis of output growth forecasts for transition countries in central and eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of...

This paper analyses the statistical properties of annual inflation forecasts prepared by the EBRD for 25 transition countries between 1994 and 2005. The empirical results show that EBRD forecasts are mostly unbiased. Late within-year forecasts are also found to be efficient. Forecast accuracy is...