We propose a flexible GARCH-type model for the prediction of volatility in financial time series. The approach relies on the idea of using multivariate B-splines of lagged observations and volatilities. Estimation of such a B-spline basis expansion is constructed within the likelihood framework...

In this paper we propose a smooth transition tree model for both the conditional mean and the conditional variance of the short-term interest rate process. Our model incorporates the interpretability of regression trees and the flexibility of smooth transition models to describe regime switches...

We analyze the performance characteristics of sustainable investments over the period 2004-2013. Our un- conditional analysis shows that the sustainable portfolios, represented by the Dow Jones Sustainability Indi- ces (DJSI) for the global and three regional markets, experience lower Sharpe...

This paper examines the dynamic dependence between American and four developed stock markets, namely, Japan, United Kingdom, Germany and France during a recent period including the global Â…nancial crisis 2007-2009. The econometric approach is based on the extreme-value time-varying copula...

We propose a general robust semiparametric bootstrap method to estimate conditional predictive distributions of GARCH-type models. Our approach is based on a robust estimator for the parameters in GARCH-type models and a robustified resampling method for standardized GARCH residuals, which...

This paper examines the dynamic dependence between American and four developed stock markets, namely, Japan, United Kingdom, Germany and France during a recent period including the global financial crisis 2007-2009. The econometric approach is based on the extreme-value time-varying copula...

The present paper focuses on three questions: (i) Are heavy tails a relevant feature of the distribution of BUND futures returns? (ii) Is the tail behaviour constant over time? (iii) If it is not, can we use the tail index as an indicator for financial market risk and does it add value in...

The main objective of this paper is to survey and evaluate the performance of the most popular univariate VaR methodologies, paying particular attention to their underlying assumptions and to their logical flaws. In the process, we show that the Historical Simulation method and its variants can...