In this work we consider forecasting macroeconomic variables dur- ing an economic crisis. The focus is on a specific … on forecasting during the economic crisis 2007-2009. Forecast accuracy is measured by the root mean square forecast error …

In this paper we consider the forecasting performance of a well-defined class of flexible models, the so-called single … flexibility, are as useful tools in economic forecasting as some previous studies have indicated. When forecasting with neural …. Second, one must decide whether forecasting should be carried out recursively or directly. Comparisons of these two methodss …

. It is suitable for describing characteristic features in inflation series as well as for medium-term forecasting. With … penalised likelihood in the estimation of model parameters. In forecasting inflation, the central bank inflation target, if it … forecasting experiment for euro area and UK inflation. We find that that taking the exogenous information into account does …

this purpose is mentioned as well. Forecasting with complex dynamic systems, albeit less frequently applied to economic … forecasting problems, is briefly highlighted. A number of large published studies comparing macroeconomic forecasts obtained using …