Showing 1 - 9 of 9
variable selection and estimation in one step. We evaluate the forecasting accuracy of these estimators for a large set of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010851261
evaluation. An important implication is that forecasting superiority of models using high frequency data is likely to be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008491711
been proposed. A related strand of literature focuses on dynamic models and covariance forecasting for high-frequency data … address, is the relative importance of the quality of the realized measure as an input in a given forecasting model vs. the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008462028
I investigate the time variation in the integration of EU government bond markets. The integration is measured by the explanatory power of European factor portfolios for the individual bond markets for each year. The integration of the government bond markets is stronger for EMU than non-EMU...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010851292
forecasting euro area manufacturing production. Following Boivin and Ng (2006), the emphasis is put on the role of dataset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344872
forecasting power of these models for the Japanese economy. In this paper, we aim at assessing the relative performance of factor …. For most of the components, we report that factor models yield lower forecasting errors than a simple AR process or an … improvements in terms of forecasting accuracy are found for more volatile periods, such as the recent financial crisis. However …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010686833
This paper proposes a methodology to nowcast and forecast inflation using data with sampling frequency higher than monthly. The nowcasting literature has been focused on GDP, typically using monthly indicators in order to produce an accurate estimate for the current and next quarter. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008917863
In this paper we propose a methodology to estimate a dynamic factor model on data sets with an arbitrary pattern of missing data. We modify the Expectation Maximisation (EM) algorithm as proposed for a dynamic factor model by Watson and Engle (1983) to the case with general pattern of missing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008459128
This paper compares the predictive ability of the factor models of Stock and Watson (2002) and Forni, Hallin, Lippi, and Reichlin (2005) using a "large" panel of US macroeconomic variables. We propose a nesting procedure of comparison that clarifies and partially overturns the results of similar...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005816246