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Fiscal convergence before entering the EMU
Onorante, Luca - European Central Bank - 2006
The monetary integration of the acceding countries will proceed in several distinct steps, starting with membership in the European Union (EU), followed by participation in the so-called Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) II and ultimately entry into the euro area. This paper addresses the question...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344947
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Inflation forecasting in the new EU Member States
Arratibel, Olga; Kamps, Christophe; Leiner-Killinger, Nadine - European Central Bank - 2009
To the best of our knowledge, our paper is the first systematic study of the predictive power of monetary aggregates for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005002771
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The political economy under monetary union: has the euro made a difference?
Fratzscher, Marcel; Stracca, Livio - European Central Bank - 2008
Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has transformed Europe and has created an integrated pan-European economy. Much … political economy channel of EMU as the monetary union implies that member states had to transfer or at least curtail their … impact of political shocks on the domestic economy of member states but magnified the transmission of political shocks within …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530784
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What are the spill-overs from fiscal shocks in Europe? An empirical analysis
Giuliodori, Massimo; Beetsma, Roel - European Central Bank - 2004
We use a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) analysis to explore the (spill-over) effects of fiscal policy shocks in Europe. To enhance comparability with the existing literature, we first analyse the effects of these shocks at the national level. Here, we employ identification based on Choleski...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530834
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What determines fiscal balances? An empirical investigation in determinants of changes in OECD budget balances
Tujula, Mika; Wolswijk, Guido - European Central Bank - 2004
Fiscal balances have deteriorated quickly in recent years, bringing back to the foreground the question what factors help explain such sharp changes. This paper takes a broad perspective at the issue regarding countries included, the range of explanatory variables tried, and the time-span. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005162932
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Economic growth and budgetary components: a panel assessment for the EU
Afonso, António; González Alegre, Juan - European Central Bank - 2008
In this paper we test whether a reallocation of government budget items can enhance long-term GDP growth in a set of European countries. We apply modern panel data techniques to the period 1970-2006, and we use three alternative dependent variables in a growth regression: economic growth, total...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005033425
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Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth
Afonso, António; Furceri, Davide - European Central Bank - 2008
This paper analyses the effects in terms of size and volatility of government revenue and spending on growth in OECD and EU countries. The results of the paper suggest that both variables are detrimental to growth. In particular, looking more closely at the effect of each component of government...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530997
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The impact of high and growing government debt on economic growth: an empirical investigation for the euro area
Checherita-Westphal, Cristina; Rother, Philipp - European Central Bank - 2010
This paper investigates the average impact of government debt on per-capita GDP growth in twelve euro area countries over a period of about 40 years starting in 1970. It finds a non-linear impact of debt on growth with a turning point—beyond which the government debt-to-GDP ratio has a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008484246
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The reform and implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact
Morris, Richard; Ongena, Hedwig; Schuknecht, Ludger - European Central Bank - 2006
Fiscal rules are instrumental for restraining deficit and spending biases in euro area Member States that could threaten the smooth functioning of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Ideally, fiscal rules should combine characteristics such as sufficient flexibility to allow for appropriate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344800
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What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis
Caldara, Dario; Kamps, Christophe - European Central Bank - 2008
The empirical literature using vector autoregressive models to assess the effects of fiscal policy shocks strongly disagrees on even the qualitative response of key macroeconomic variables to government spending and tax shocks. We provide new evidence for the U.S. over the period 1955-2006. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344811