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Inflation dynamics with labour market matching: assessing alternative specifications

Christoffel, Kai; Costain, James S.; De Walque, Gregory; … - European Central Bank - 2009

This paper reviews recent approaches to modeling the labour market and assessestheir implications for ination dynamics through both their e¤ect on marginalcost and on price-setting behaviour. In a search and matching environment, weconsider the following modeling setups: right-to-manage...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866597

Downward wage rigidity and optimal steady-state inflation

Fagan, Gabriel; Messina, Julián - European Central Bank - 2009

This paper examines the impact of downward wage rigidity (nominal and real) onoptimal steady-state inflation. For this … andFinland). The calibrated heterogeneous agent models are then solved for differentsteady state rates of inflation to derive …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866626

Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?

Hofmann, Boris - European Central Bank - 2008

indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period first quarter 1999 till third quarter 2006 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005222333

The information content of M3 for future inflation

Trecroci, Carmine; Vega, Juan Luis - European Central Bank - 2000

The information content of broad money M3 for future GDP inflation in the euro area is investigated from a number of … real M3 holdings, real GDP, inflation and short- and long-term interest rates. Secondly, this empirical framework is … predictive power for future inflation. And thirdly, the P-star type of model developed is compared with an existing rival model …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005816264

Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: a simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model

Coenen, Günter; McAdam, Peter; Straub, Roland - European Central Bank - 2007

In this paper, we employ a calibrated two-country version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) currently under development at the European Central Bank to examine the potential benefits and spillovers of reducing labour-market distortions caused by euro area tax structures. Our analysis shows that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344892

Fiscal policy and the great recession in the Euro area

Coenen, Günter; Straub, Roland; Trabandt, Mathias - European Central Bank - 2012

How much did fiscal policy contribute to euro area real GDP growth during the Great Recession? We estimate that discretionary fiscal measures have increased annualized quarterly real GDP growth during the crisis by up to 1.6 percentage points. We obtain our result by using an extended version of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010541257

Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: long-run benefits and short-run costs.

Coenen, Günter; Mohr, Matthias; Straub, Roland - European Central Bank - 2008

In this paper, we examine the macroeconomic effects of alternative fiscal consolidation policies in the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM), a two-country open-economy model of the euro area developed at the European Central Bank (cf. Coenen et al., 2007). We model fiscal consolidation as a permanent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530882

Gauging the effects of fiscal stimulus packages in the euro area

Coenen, Günter; Straub, Roland; Trabandt, Mathias - European Central Bank - 2012

We seek to quantify the impact on euro area GDP of the European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP) enacted in response to the financial crisis of 2008-09. To do so, we estimate an extended version of the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model with a richly specified fiscal sector. The estimation results point...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010686873

The short-term impact of government budgets on prices: evidence from macroeconomic models

Henry, Jérôme; Hernández de Cos, Pablo; Momigliano, … - European Central Bank - 2004

This paper reviews the existing empirical evidence on the short-term impact on prices of fiscal variables and assesses it against new results from harmonised simulations, conducted with six well-established econometric models used by the ECB and five national central banks (NCBs) of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005222300

Does government spending crowd in private consumption? Theory and empirical evidence for the euro area

Coenen, Günter; Straub, Roland - European Central Bank - 2005

In this paper, we revisit the effects of government spending shocks on private consumption within an estimated New-Keynesian DSGE model of the euro area featuring non-Ricardian households. Employing Bayesian inference methods, we show that the presence of non-Ricardian households is in general...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005222343