1970s’ United States would not have prevented the Great Inflation. We show that a standard policy counterfactual suggests … that the Bundesbank–which is near-universally credited for sparing West Germany the Great Inflation–would also not have … been able to prevent the Great Inflation in the United States. The sheer implausibility of this result sounds a cautionary …

We characterise the evolution of the U.S. unemployment-inflation trade-off since the late XIX century era via a … Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR. The Great Inflation episode appears as historically unique along several … inflation and unemployment’s deviations from equilibrium–was, during those years, clearly out of line with respect to the rest …

We use a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR with stochastic volatility for GDP deflator inflation, real … Inflation was due, to a dominant extent, to large demand non-policy shocks, and to a lesser extent–especially in 1973 and 1979 … difference in terms of inflation and output growth outcomes; and (3)mechanically ‘bringing the Monetary Policy Committee vback in …

deflator inflation, real GDP growth, and the rate of growth of M2. We identify 4 shocks–monetary policy, demand non …, with (e.g.) significant increases in the long-run coefficients on inflation and money growth around the time of the Volcker … macroeconomic environment of the last two decades. First, the Great Inflation was due, to a dominant extent, to large demand non …

macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate … predictions for the three variables. In particular for inflation the TV-VAR outperforms, in terms of mean square forecast error … also shown to hold over the most recent period in which it has been hard to forecast inflation. JEL Classification: C32, E …